Application of ARIMA Model to Predict Number of Neonatal Disorders in China

Abstract

In China, neonatal abnormalities continue to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality, making this a pressing public health concern. To predict future trends in fatalities in China caused by Neonatal Disorders, we used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in this research. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), and Box-Jenkins approach were all run to verify the model's validity. The stationarity of the time series data and the optimal ARIMA model parameters could then be determined with the help of these analytic techniques